Birth of a new Genetic Family - Group 10

A new project member recently joined the Ryan DNA Project (CR-5799). He does not have any Ryan's among his list of matches but he does match another Ryan within the project (SR-3236) at a Genetic Distance of 7/37 (i.e. 7 steps away from an exact match). These two people also share a number of STR marker values in common, creating a relatively Unique STR Pattern (USP) compared to other project members. And on this basis I have decided to group them together.

Arrows indicate the Unique STR Pattern for this group

How old is the new group?
Even though they are genetically related to each other (probably within the last 1000 years or so), their common ancestor could have lived back in the 1600s or earlier (i.e. it is a distant connection). The TiP Report predicts an approximate 50% probability that they share a common ancestor within the last 14 generations (i.e. born about 1530 AD) and an approximate 95% probability within the last 24 generations (i.e. about 1230 AD). More accurate predictions could be achieved by testing to a higher number of STR markers (e.g. Y-DNA-111) but there would still be a range of about +/- 300 years on either side of the midpoint estimate. In other words, these estimates will always be crude (from a genealogical perspective).

However, given that the connection is so far back, and they both carry the same Ryan surname, this group could represent a relatively ancient Ryan subgroup, that has been around for many hundred years, but which does not have many surviving descendants.

Where did they come from?
There is no information available about the MDKA (Most Distant Known Ancestor) for either project member so there are no clues from either individual's genealogical data. We may find clues among the surnames of their matches, or from the terminal SNP markers of their matches.

Matches' Surnames
CR-5799 has 16 matches (at the 37 marker level of comparison) and they have the following surnames: Burns, Coleman, Coulson (x2), Ford, Hagan, Healy, Jackson, Johnson, Lewis, Mason Minett, Pemberton, Potteet, Smith, Williams

SR-3236 has 13 matches (at the 37 marker level of comparison) and they have the following surnames: Creswick (x3), Eason (x3), Easton, Evans, Hayes, Hobson, Paige, Pelsue, Ratcliffe

There are both English & Irish names among these matches so this suggests an origin in either Britain or Ireland within the last 1000 years (our timeframe of interest).

Matches' Terminal SNPs

Here is a list of the most relevant Terminal SNPs of the matches of each of the members. This information may help place them on the Tree of Mankind and this in turn may allow us to identify a likely origin for this particular group.

At the 37-marker level of comparison: CR-5799 ... L21; SR-3236 ... U106, S25007

At the 25-marker level of comparison (most frequent SNPs only - numbers in brackets are number of times each SNP appears):

• CR-5799 (570 matches) ... L20 (3), L21 (2), L48 (5), L513 (2), U106 (3), U152 (4), U198 (2), Y34483 (4), Z156 (2), Z16532 (3), Z18 (2), Z195 (2), Z9 (2)
• SR-3236 (191 matches) ... BY32442 (3), BY34891 (2), L21 (2), S25007 (2), S7432 (2), U106 (2)

Below are the SNP Progressions for these most frequent SNP markers. A SNP Progression is simply the sequence of SNP markers that characterise each branching point on the Tree of Mankind, starting at the level of the Haplogroup (R in this case) and progressing all the way "downstream" to the Terminal SNP.  Comparing SNP Progressions helps us see exactly where each terminal SNP sits on the Tree of Mankind relative to all the other SNPs:

• L21 (2) ... ... R-P312/S116 > Z290 > L21
• L513 (2) ... .. R- P312/S116 > Z290 > L21 > DF13 > L513
• Z16532 (3) ... R-P312/S116 > Z290 > L21/S145 > DF13 > DF21/S192 > FGC3213 > Z16532
• Y34483 (4) ... R-P312/S116 > Z290 > L21 S145 > DF13 > DF21/S192 > FGC3213 > Z16532 > Y34485 > Y34483
• BY34891 (2) ... R-P312/S116 > Z290 > L21 S145 > DF13 > FGC11134 > A353 > Z16250 > A114 > CTS4466/S1136 > S1115 > A541 > S1121 > Z16251 > A159 > Z17981 > A923 > BY21614 > BY30545 > BY34891
• L20 (3) ...  R-P312/S116 > Z40481 > ZZ11 > U152/S28 > L2/S139 > Z367/S255 > L20/S144
• U152 (4) ... R-P312/S116 > Z40481 > ZZ11 > U152
• Z195 (2) ...  R-P312/S116 > Z40481 > ZZ11 > DF27/S250 > Z195/S355
• S7432 (2) ... R-P312/S116 > Z40481 > ZZ11 > DF27/S250 > ZZ12 > ZZ41 > S7432
• U106 (3) ... R-U106/S21
• S25007 (2) ... R-U106/S21 > ...
• Z18 (2) ... ...   R-U106/S21 > Z2265 > Z18
• Z156 (2) ... ...  R-U106/S21 > Z2265 > Z381/S263 > S264/Z156
• U198 (2) ... ...  R-U106/S21 > Z2265 > Z381/S263 > Z301/S499 > S1688 > U198
• L48 (5) ... ... ... R-U106/S21 > Z2265 > Z381/S263 > Z301/S499 > L48
• Z9 (2) ... ... ... .. R-U106/S21 > Z2265 > Z381/S263 > Z301/S499 > L48 > Z9
• BY32442 (3) ... R-U106/S21 > Z2265 > Z381 S263 > Z301/S499 > L48 > Z9 > Z30/S271 > Z2 > ~22277095-G-A > S16218 > b38:7436045AT>A > BY32442

Simply ordering the SNP Progressions in this way allows us to see that the matches of these two group members sit on very distinct branches of the Tree of Mankind (some separated by tens of thousands of years) indicating that a lot of them are "chance matches" that just happen to have similar STR genetic signatures. Thus we cannot reliably predict on which branch of the Tree of Mankind this group is likely to sit. In order to clarify this, one or both group members would need to undertake the Big Y test.

Conclusions

Even though the two members of this group are not close matches to each other (GD 7/37), their Unique STR Pattern suggests that they can be appropriately grouped together and that they share a common ancestor some time in the past several hundred years (probably pre-1600s). For now, we are none the wiser as to where this particular genetic group originated, but hopefully, as more people join the project and are a match to this new group, their origins will become more clear.

Both members should join the relevant Haplogroup & Geographic Projects and seek further advice from the Admins of those projects. For now, until Big Y data is available, only topline recommendations can be made re potentially relevant projects:

• Ireland Y-DNA Project
• R1b & Subclades

Options for these project members would be to upgrade to Y-DNA-111 and do the Big Y test. This would help confirm that they are appropriately grouped together and would help isolate on which particular branch of the Tree of Mankind they sit. This in turn could give clues as to their origins.

Maurice Gleeson

June 2019